Replies to post #146891 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Did I hear them correctly when they said that triple-negative plus high-expressors constitute 35% of all breast cancer patients?

No, I don't think that's correct. Per their PR, they state: "The results were consistent with previous studies and suggest that CDX-011 has considerable potential, particularly in key patient populations with more difficult to treat disease, including patients with high GPNMB expression levels and patients with triple negative breast cancer. Together these patients account for more than 35% of the total breast cancer population." So, they're referring to patients with high GPNMB as a percentage individually and triple negative patients as a percentage individually and then adding those two percentages together. The percentage of patients with both high GPNMB and who are triple-negative would be a smaller percentage.

P.S. I don't think $60-80 million in the current environment is such a big chunk of change. If they don't get a deal at least as good as the one ECYT got from MRK, then I'll be really disappointed. GPNMB is expressed on other tumor types besides breast. These are potentially huge markets.

I don't disagree with you regarding the opportunity and I would love for CLDX to get ECYT-like terms. I don't think those types of deals come around too often for small-cap biotech though (part of the reason I'm also long ECYT) but let's see what CLDX can do. I'll hope for the best but play it conservative and assume they'll get something less.

[jq1234]

Looking at upfront alone is short sighted. I'd rather them to partner with Genetech or NVS for half of the upfront than with those who don't have much experience in oncology.