Replies to post #146459 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

ARRY - The melanoma data was expected end of june according to one analyst so i presumed the run up was due to that. I'm surprised the pain trial results caused a 15 % drop. The only reason I can think of is that 797 is fully owned and perhaps there was the possibility that it could also be faster to market than any of the other drugs.

ARRY believes ARRY-614 will be in pivotal trials next year, it remains wholly-owned, and ARRY has disclosed it intends to take the drug to market themselves. They also claim, if you believe management, that the MDS patient population that they are targeting with 614 is a $1B opportunity with no competition. So, 614 is a much, much bigger opportunity than 797 (ARRY intends to partner 797 and would thus have to share economics there) and it's about as close to market as 797 if you trust management's guidance. Obviously they need to deliver on the data, starting at ASH in December.

[olddogwithnewtrix]

ARRY -The stock had come so far so fast that it was looking for a reason to pullback. IMHO there were a lot of people ready to lock in profits -even from far off the highs. And like you say, I don't think many -myself included- thought 797 was that big of deal. Now, the selumetinib data update has got me thinking.. If 797 could do this to the stock price, what could a negative selumetinib update do to the stock price? A lot. I am sure I am not the only one thinking this.

Now I know why someone got all those puts> which also makes me nervous.

[bladerunner1717]

McBio,

There is a trial at http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01649336?term=mek-162&rank=10 that has MEK-162 being tested in combination with paclitaxel. ARRY is the sponsor of the trial, according to the site. Since we know, or thought we knew, that NVS's strategy with MEK-162 was to test in combo with other targeted therapies, does this mean that ARRY is doing some testing on its own? Is that even possible under the terms of the agreement? I can't imagine that NVS would let that happen. Or does this mean that NVS is expanding the scope of its testing with MEK-162 to now test in combo with chemotherapeutics?


Bladerunner