Replies to post #146349 on Biotech Values

[olddogwithnewtrix]

I have said repeatedly (not on this board) that I gave 797 zero value. I think it is funny that the stock is selling off in after hours. I do not like pain drug trials -especially competing with oxy. (who doesn't like to take an oxy while in pain LOL)

IMHO The sleeper value for ARRY is 614. In the presentation on 12/16/11 towards the very end the VP said that 4 of 7 platelet deficit patients that were transfusion dependent became transfusion independent while taking the drug. This is interesting because MDS patients that are transfusion independent live far longer than their dependent counterparts.
There is a good possibility 614 will offer a durable, beneficial response for many with MDS. They will give an update on the dose escalation study at ASH in December , I am bullish on the new formulation.

Then you have all the cancer drugs to fall back on. Lots of chances with this one.

[pcrutch]

They said QTc was within FDA thresholds for this issue. You left this bit out

"To further explore the safety and tolerability of ARRY-797, Array is currently conducting a multiple ascending dose trial in healthy volunteers at doses up to 2.5-fold higher than those evaluated in the osteoarthritis pain trial. ARRY-797 has been well-tolerated in this trial to date, and greater QTc prolongations were observed at these higher dose levels. No subject in either trial exhibited an absolute QTc interval >500 msec or a change from baseline >60 msec, two values cited by regulatory authorities, including the FDA, as thresholds of particular concern for cardiac arrhythmia. These QTc observations warrant further evaluation."

Would any BP want to take on this drug?

Unclear to me. I know a couple of p38 are already out there(Roche/BMY/Flexion). Imagine they'd shelve it before even considering a Phase 3.

the 797 drug isnt really in anyone's model, since there were never big hopes for it.

[NP1986]

Isn't the QTc issue a huge red flag? I have osteoarthritis and I'm not sure I'd want to take this drug and ARRY is my second biggest holding. LOLOL The SP is down 12% in AH. (I really think this might be overdone; no one that I know had this drug factored into their valuation models.) Would any BP want to take on this drug?

I agree that the QTc issue is concerning, unless they want to target a niche population (e.g. acute use in patients who cannot tolerate oxycodone). I think it will make potential partners think twice about licensing ARRY-797 because cardiovascular issues are bound to be a huge concern for chronic use.

[tony111]

ARRY
The run up in the past two weeks its all about the 797 data. Typical buy on rumor sell on news.