Replies to post #146329 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

DNDN -

Does anyone here still think the problem with Provenge is merely slow reimbursement (what management inventively called “low cash density”)?

1) No one ever claimed on this board that 'low cash density' was the problem.

2) At this point they have fixed whatever fraction of the problem was caused by 'low cash density' (aka reimbursement risk) - which is perhaps what gave them much of their YoY growth (I don't track them enough to know - hence the word 'perhaps'). So now 'low cash density' probably doesn't even qualify as a (significant) problem.

3) Your original claim was that the issue was all about 'end user demand' - which I interpreted to mean that even a well informed patient isn't interested in Provenge (i.e. unfixable). My thinking on this hasn't changed - that might have been the largest factor last year but, even if not the largest factor last year, will become more so this year and next with the introduction new, more conventional, treatments. But unless the company improves execution we will never know whether it could have been fixed - and, at this point, I have little faith that the company can improve execution sufficient to provide us a definitive 'I was right and you were wrong' moment -g-.