Replies to post #145843 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I'm debating whether I should get back into FOLD. If only it had options.

I wonder if it makes sense to wait until after the pivotal monotherapy data. I normally hate pivotal binary events anyways and there seems to some skepticism around the outcome and otherwise the size of the market (e.g., as you note GSK giving up rights to U.S. market). But, if negative and stock tanks, maybe get in for the combo opportunity down the road?

[jq1234]

However I am curious why GSK decided to give up US rights. Do they think that Amigal monotherapy is a small market?

GSK had to give up something to get the new deal done. I think GSK got a good deal here, not only changed cost share from 25-75 to 40-60, but also in effect had FOLD to share risk with co-formulation with JCR's unproven ERT. Co-formulation can't go to phase 3 directly, they'll have to start from phase 1, plus most likely phase 3 will be against active comparator, currently approved ERT rather than placebo. In previous deal, FOLD share risk on their own drug only with either monotherapy or combination with approved ERTs.