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ReturntoSender

07/14/12 6:18 PM

#9836 RE: ReturntoSender #9835

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (7/14/12)

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_July_14_2012.htm

Overall I still favor an Expanding Leading Diagonal pattern from the early April high of 1422 which is frustrating the bearish crowd and suckering in the bullish investors. The move from the 1267 low has the look of a corrective "wxy" Double Zig Zag pattern. In this pattern we are currently in the last move up to complete "y" near 1390 which is the 78.6% Retrace from 1422 to 1267. In addition also notice the upper part of the Expanding Diagonal also comes into play around that level as well. Also keep in mind once the 4th Wave completes then a sharp 5th Wave to the downside would follow from late Summer through the Fall.



Keep in mind although the Expanding Leading Diagonal is rare pattern it did occur with the top made in late 2007. Notice how the final 5th Wave was very sharp to the downside and only took a few months to complete.



Finally watch the Volatility Index (VIX) as it's trending back to the 16 level after briefing rising above the 25 level. In the past when the VIX has risen above the 25 level and then quickly dropped back to 16 or below within a few months (points A to B) this has signaled nearing tops.