Is this speculative?
Yes. Anytime you propose to debut a new process for a basic worldwide industry like Aluminum, lots of things can go wrong. However, they have already built and tested the process in an operating miniature version. They shut it down to convert it to the proposed HPA plant.
They plan to have the HPA plant built and operating by year end so the time wait is minimal compared to normal construction timeframes.
They have announced that the Rare Earth module will be added to the HPA plant and they will produce rare earths in 2013.
If you are skeptical of the process, you can wait until they finalize the JV with Rusal and Nalco to build the SGA plant. They are planning on building and operating the first SGA plant in 2014 but need to finalize the JV first to get the financing. Rusal and Nalco are two of the biggest aluminum companies in the world. If they help fund the first SGA, this will be a big boost to the project credibility. Rusal is the biggest producer of alumina in the world but also has the highest costs. So this new process could drop them from the highest to the lowest cost quartile.
The big deal is the remediation of the red mud. That can be done separately or existing producers can build new plants using the Orbite process and eliminate the tailings problem. Rare earths will bolster revs and lower costs in either scenario.
Do your DD. I am not a chemist so can't guarantee success but all indications are that Orbite is disruptive and headed for big things.
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