Replies to post #77050 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[sylvester80]

Charts do break based on technical and fundamental news. Otherwise, we'll all be trading using the same chart. News do move stocks, up and down. How far up and how far down is the chart part. But charts do get revised as technical and fundamentals news cause charts to break. In other words you need all of the above (and more) and even that is not enough to help anyone predict 100% of the time direction and levels with perfect accuracy.

[MKT_entropy]

ajtj, you're clearly a virtuoso chartist, but for those less schooled in this magic art--or maybe less convinced of its predictive ability--it would be very helpful if you could assign some probabilities to various scenarios you discuss. Plus-minus 10 per cent would be quite all right.

Why? Because you are always hedging, that this can happen or that can happen, and that way you cover the universe of outcomes--and can't be wrong.

I may sound skeptical, but I'm trying to have an open mind. Besides, it's good to learn from the masters, no? <g>

Finally, would you agree that if TA works, it is because everybody, including MMs, sees the same charts and many behave 'according to the book'--in other words, it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trying to be facetious.

M_e