I'm as far from a statistician as a person can be, but it seems to me that assigning probabilities to things like this, with so many variables and for so far out, is less mathematics and more—as you yourself said—wild guessing. :-)
Inasmuch as MNTA's poster suggests sonic hedgehog inhibition as the likely MOA for reduced primary tumor growth & metastasis/invasion in pancreatic cancer, could we benefit from the potential success of GDC-0449, Curis' HH inhibitor being developed now by Genentech/Roche?
I haven't followed that program closely, believe it's already approved for BCC or some such, and is being trialed by several entities in pancreatic cancer. I would expect readouts from these trials in advance of readouts from M402's trial. Perhaps a date range has been given by Curis or their partners? Maybe I'll take a quick look tomorrow if no one else does, unless someone convinces me beforehand it's not worth the effort.
I would guess the safety profiles are somewhat different. With M402, I gather the main concern so far is how well they engineered out the anticoagulant properties. Haven't looked recently at GDC-0449, and don't remember a thing about its tox profile.
edit: I see some readout here at AACR recently. Getting sleepy, will read tomorrow . . .
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