Replies to post #9172 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[linhdtu]

I go by track record. As I remember Bernie said mnta would probably lose copax case and prevail against ampha.

In a way, this is a fortuitous ordering of events. the way i see it there are 3 outcomes in the "short" term (compared to the Baxter partnership events): copax case, ampha case and mcopax approval.

Given that cowen is wrong and bernie is right about the suits, with the neg out of the way once the stock settles wherever it wants to settle, it may/will have nowhere else to go but up if the other two outcomes turn out to be positive. if i buy in then i have to believe in the ability of the company so mcopax approval is a foreordained thing , a matter of when not if. as for the ampha case, i would go by the opinion of the bernie guy. he is right so far.

[GrthzGd]

I don't think one can draw any inference as to the strength of MNTA's IP from its having lost a challenge to TEVA's Copaxone patents before court in the Southern District of New York. It was a test of TEVA's patents only.

MNTA's test should come in the fall in the trial of its suit against Amphastar/Watson for infringement of MNTA's patents. Given MNTA's home court advantage in the Ampha case, where the judge has already granted MNTA a preliminary injunction, I'd guess that MNTA's odds are much higher, and that we'll see a favorable view of their IP emerge from that trial. As I see it, the recent modest run up in the MNTA stock price was a reasonable gamble that they'd win the New York case. I would think that its price should stay in the 13s for the next several months before starting to creep up in a similar manner as the Ampha verdict date approaches.

OT, but I'm looking forward to seeing what the SCOTUS does with Obamacare today....