The following is my own personal analysis of recent JBII history based on what I see in the chart/SMB/news:
My chart has been telling me that the PROS have been covering at around the $1 range since 09/28/2011. Large buys and/or covers again on 11/22/2011. The most climatically high volume buys and covers on 01/04/2012, 01/05/2011, and 01/12/2012. More buys/covers on 03/15/2012. It appears to me that a large amount of their long term short positions were covered by this time.
Now, in my opinion, around late april, early may, they had to let off the buying/covering to test the market. I think they were noticing too many other retail buyers buying alongside them. What it looks like to me is that during this period, they didn't influence the PPS much and just let it flow however it was gonna flow. It responded neutrally. This is bullish since it was immediately following a downtrend. Momentum had dried up. JBII based at .95 on low volume with no signs of scared retail selling to force it down further. IMO, this is when they confirmed that all of the covering/buying they had been doing was the correct decision. This is why they had to allow for the beginning of an uptrend after the filing of the 10Q. (I strongly believe you are right that they still have sizable long-term short positions yet to be covered)
On 05/14/2012 and 05/15/2012 we saw what I believe to be fairly large amounts of retail buying followed by a swift and aggressive flurry of sells/shorts to stifle the stock from shooting up too far. They wanted to stifle the PPS because they were intending to either cover more shorts or add to their long positions.
Instead of accumulating the shares from frightened and exasperated long-term longs, they are having to switch gears. The 10Q changed the underlying direction of the market and I believe that now instead of attempting to manipulate long term shareholders into selling, they are now focusing on manipulating medium to short-term traders into giving up their shares at inopportune times in a last ditch effort to cover. The true longs are not selling at these levels. The 06/04/2012, 06/06/2012, and 06/07/2012 days (that you called were going to be volume days) were IMO mainly aimed at getting all the medium to short term traders who were buying in May to give up their shares flat or at a loss. They are trying to maximize the accumulation of cheap shares during a drought.
My take on the current situation with the Reg Sho threshold flagging and what not is that these "PROS" are SCRAMBLING to avoid a short squeeze. This stock is a pressure cooker right now and every day we get closer to the AGM, the longs will be lining up. This means there are less and less retail sell orders to absorb with their covers. If they don't have that sell volume, they are essentially toast. IMO, they are using even MORE NSS to manipulate the price to remain low and "inconspicuous" and to attempt to "spark" more sell orders in order to cover at a low price and avoid a short squeeze. It's sort of like fighting fire with fire. I agree with you 4k, these guys must be freaking out- given the threshold flag, it is quite apparent that the 10Q caught them off guard. They are getting sloppy. If we see a short squeeze rally, these guys might lose a LOT of money because said rally just might never stop...
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