Except that (unlike the fantastical frog in your example) he had many real opportunities to sell for much higher prices. So indeed, he did lose out by holding. Whether you buy high, or hold high, you still lose when the price declines. Doesn't matter what you paid. From a psychological standpoint, it may not feel as bad to drop 75% of winnings if you are up from when you started, but in a real (mathematical) sense, it makes no difference. You had $40k worth of stock, now you have $11k. While I guess you can say "At least I didn't buy any more during the pump", you won't compete with the fellow who bought at 50 cents, realized it was all hype and took his $35 grand profit and moved on to the next hype stock.
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