Unfortunately, I do not see any scenario where the war is called off, it is only a question of how long before it starts, they may push out the 3/3 window out, but not by much.
The fact that this market is strong in the face fo a 3-day weekend tells me that --wolf! has been cried once too often. The thought of going to war over the objections of key allies is very disheartening. It appears that the market wants to believe that we are very oversold and that it will look for an excuse to rally.