rotor, would agree...could have been a lot worse. Caveats and interesting chart items... When looking at weekly 1306 very key on downside to hold, but as long as 1294-95 holds and we bounce back over 1306-10 then good to go. On upside to sustain rally we need 1331-32 taken out (9 ema on weekly) and then 1335 has to be aggressively taken out/held afterward. Then can maintain bullish posture.
However, if masses and really big time traders traders are reluctant to buy here and actually retreating into treasuries and or using spreads on vix more aggressively in coming days then likely we have an undercut to go either tomorrow morning or perhaps early to mid next week.
I'm thinking the line in the sand on S&P is 1295-1300. That is into (and somewhat below half of the May candle). Of course I've mentioned this before but I'm looking at these really nice set of candlesticks back to Aug to Oct 2011 on Weekly. Pull those up...
If I'm right we test those candlesticks in the next two weeks (likely towards the upside of those candles).
So my take on everything I'm seeing says that when plotting support and resistance...look to the less optimistic levels on up moves for a trend up within the range... that is if you have a good resistance point at upside...pick the mid channel instead. and look to the more extreme ranges of support being tested to downside.
Once fear and all other measures show us that a rally can be sustained...which could come quickly....then the opposite will be true. Right now everything is pointing to sustained selling pressure in the markets being the rule.
That said...a really interesting data point for folks to check out is the 100 sma on the Monthly - its at 1224 as I think I read my charts.
I'm actually looking for an undercut of that to say 1175 and then retake of 1224-50 in next week or so.
That test doesn't have to happen..and many measures are mixed here (so I'm hard pressed to say that I can get over 65-35 probability it will be hit).
That said,, we are bear flagging all over the place, but many stocks and some interesting sub sectors doing like gangbusters.
So even though I seem to be at big odds with most on board (except HaHa?) I think the move down will be swift, take everyone off guard and we will see a nice reversal candle we can live some time between now and say 2nd week of July...
We'll see. Interesting back and forth of late on board. I think its better now that we have all the negative bashing out. I just like that we all have our own way and when we compare notes that helps for me, perhaps others to really work our way thru this (and to find interesting mods to our systems...). So hope you guys get my spirit and never take my comments any other way but that way... Good luck folks.. Mike
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