Replies to post #143557 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Let's assume, for arguments sake, that the Phase III is a success with an HR <.80. What would you have to conclude about your analysis? In other words, if you turn out to be wrong, how would you critique your own analysis?

Everything is odds. And in an odds situation you don't change everything because of one miss. But if I am consistently wrong then sure I'd have to change. That said, if there is one sure thing in biotech ... it is easy to call the failures and be right a lot more often than wrong.