Replies to post #143554 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ARQL -

Are you inferring that the MARQUEE trial for '197 will not meet efficacy when unblinded?

Not completely. When I offered a wager that the OS HR was greater 0.80 that includes some results that would actually be stat sig since any HR less than about 0.87 would be stat sig.

That said, I think there is about a 50% chance that the trial is a failure - for instance the MARQUEE trial entrance criteria is closer to the MetMab ph ii entrance criteria in important ways than it is to the ARQL ph ii entrance criteria. And if you removed the squamous population from the MetMab ph ii it would still result in an HR that will not be stat sig for MARQUEE.

NOTE: jq's data post has moved me to up the odds of success somewhat since originally I WAG'd the chance of stat sig as only 40%.