"In the end KBLB will trade based on what KBLB really has"
You make many valid points.
However, I believe the market is basically rational in the long-term, while I believe it to behave basically irrational in the short-term. The over-reactive, lemming mentality often predominates in short-term spike behavior.
I also am considering it as a fact, that the first commercial deal will not be "all there is", it will be the beginning of a series,of long-term commercial deals, as KBLB continues to exploit a long sequence of technical breakthroughs with a myriad of product applications.