i have been creating a weekly chart set that includes 58 charts of just about anything you could imagine. after scanning them tonight, i have this to say.
the window to hit oct lows in this downtrend is the next two weeks. if it doesn't happen here and now, we are going significantly higher. I would think that a 2-3 week rally is the minimum time and a 50-61.8% retrace the minimum distance. it could conceivably extend to the Feb highs, but that is getting way ahead of things. the indicators on these 58 charts are at levels where reversal is likely at any point. that said, they do have plenty of room to go down.
now i need to add that i see only an infinitesimal chance of nas and ndx hitting the oct lows in the next two weeks. i refer to the dow and spx as the indexes likely to hit if we continue selling off.
now, should we continue to sell off and have the spx and dow hit the oct lows, there will still be a bounce and a big one, but it would probably be limited to about 850 spx instead of the 875 area.
as always the next few days will be interesting.
steve
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