There is no such thing as a stupid question. I'm glad you are showing an interest. I can only give you my opinion. It may or may not be the right answer? We'll know for sure in a few weeks.
The way I see that ALKS chart, it will get a bounce and probably back test the 400 ema around $16. Unless the market makes a 180 degree turn and starts a true uptrend? I would expect ALKS to eventually drop on down to the $14 area.
I am thinking of something similar looking to Nov 7 - 14 previously.
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