Replies to post #143223 on Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

I grant that historically oncology has been a tougher area than other spaces, largely because of more failures in Phase III. Again speaking historically, the oncology success rate from Phase I to approval (around 7%) has been only a bit more than half that of other areas (around 12%).

But in contradistinction to that historical rate, a highly-targeted drug that works will have a very easy time of it compared with any other class of drugs. Thus one could project with reasonable certainty that ponatinib was going to be at least an approvable drug after a few Phase I patients had responded. (Not saying this was enough data to say it would be a successful drug, just an approvable drug). The safety hurdles are much lower than in virtually any other space, and reimbursement is also pretty clear.

Peter

[bladerunner1717]

Dew,

I think you make a serious mistake when you conflate cancer drug candidates with cancer drug companies and cancer drug company stocks.

Those of us who bought ARIA under $1.80 don't really have to worry whether Ponatinib will be a commercial success or not. The same is true for Immunogen (TDM-1) or MDVN or SGEN or PCYC or ECYT or a bunch of others. As Peter implies, the task here is to find cancer drug companies that have a good chance of making it to Phase III and beyond with their cancer drug candidates. The Stock Market, not the commercial market, will reward those who manage that task successfully.


Bladerunner