Replies to post #61470 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

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Re: When it comes to demonstrating future stuff (to fool people, as you say), I would say that Intel has been doing more of that (with all of the overclocked P4s demonstrated at IDFs).

Let's be fair. PR is PR, and if you have it, you flaunt it. Intel flaunted their overclocked P4 chips a few years ago, but that will obviously no longer impress. This year, a strong 65nm ramp got the attention of at least a few analysts (including UBS, who upgraded Intel with a $37 price target). AMD only showed off dual core Turion, but in the wake of Yonah and Merom, it barely caught mention in the news. That is unusual for AMD at IDF.

Re: As far as the pipeline It's kind of a projection, and IMO, AMD is being overly secretive in this department.

AMD's roadmap may not be laid out, but it's easy to extrapolate given rumors and public remarks. First, AMD intends to transition to their new socket, which will enable DDR2 and higher frequency prospects (maybe one or two bins). Then they will need to get to 65nm before anything else. They have quad core on the roadmap, possibly PCI-Express integration (not entirely sure about this rumor, maybe 20% chance), and finally their new micro-architecture, which you also mentioned. But, obviously AMD isn't going to launch all these in the next 18 months. It will take time.

I think they will try to get quad core out as soon as possible, especially given that Intel has commented that there are already 10 designs on the roadmap with 4 or more cores. AMD will not be able to claim leadership in core number going forward. It will be much easier for Intel to integrate more cores with their larger die size and manufacturing capabilities. But it will also depend on where the software is at the time. Even if Intel could release a 16 core processor, what kind of market would benefit? I think there is a software evolution that will limit the multi-core race.

At any rate, in spite of the FUD from some people, Intel looks like they have a compelling roadmap going forward, and AMD does not seem to have the "next best thing" waiting as a response.