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federal reserves

02/11/03 12:34 PM

#74784 RE: Public Heel #74779

PH> Greenie didn't have to raise rates

he could have raised margin requirements. Just last week they raise margin requirements on gold futures and gold dropped like a rock. It killed off a hyper bubble in the metal.

Greenie had the power, but not the will.

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Blue Horse Shoe

02/11/03 12:49 PM

#74799 RE: Public Heel #74779

"Even if he'd been able to raise rates and choke off the bubble, he'd know that he would forever be blamed as the person who killed the greatest bull market of all time. The ensuing downside would have all been "his fault"."

So which is worse, blame him now or blame him later? I admit he had a tough job, but the current downside is "his fault" anyway. Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but the pain we are experiencing now and about to experience is much worse for the overall economy than the slow steady growth which would have likely been attained by putting on the brakes. He saw it coming and should have intervened. But he and the crooks probably shorted at the top so what do they care?

Going forward the only option they have is to reinstate the 30 year and finance debt longer term.

Greenspan reminds me of a poem my dad taught me when I learned to drive:

Hear lies the body of William J
Died while maintaining his right of way
He was right
Dead right as he sped along
But he's just as dead now
As if he'd been dead wrong


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mlsoft

02/11/03 12:50 PM

#74801 RE: Public Heel #74779

Public Heel...

"I don't think Greenspan could have done much. After his "irrational exuberance" speech, the Market recovered quickly. If he had given another, the same thing would have happened. By the third or fourth time, people would have ignored him."

Words alone are not effective - actions and policies were needed and he did nothing.
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"He could have tried raising interest rates, but all the Kudlidiots of the world would have screamed to high heaven, and he quite likely would have been outvoted in the OMC. Even if he'd been able to raise rates and choke off the bubble, he'd know that he would forever be blamed as the person who killed the greatest bull market of all time. The ensuing downside would have all been "his fault"."

Greenspan outvoted?? Not a chance. Raising rates slow the rate of growth of money supply and that was probably needed, but there were other things he could have done, such as raising margin requirements and bank reserve requirements as many (including myself) thought at the time was required. Instead, he did nothing and even continued to pump excess money into the system. He chose popularity over meeting his responsibility.
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"Sometimes, these things just are too strong, and they have to play themselves out. I'm not blaming anyone for it."

It was his job, and his responsibility, and he failed. I am done on the subject - none of us is likely to change another's opinion, and regardless of how we got here, the problem now is getting through the aftermath of the bubble. I believe we have a long road ahead of us in that regard.

mlsoft




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Alex G

02/11/03 1:46 PM

#74847 RE: Public Heel #74779

I tell ya where Greenspan really lost me... I believe it was about Jan 2001, when he based his forward prognosis for the economy as being in pretty good shape based on analysts forward earnings projections... Yes, he quoted analysts projected earnings as his evidence!... It seems Greenspan himself bought into the "new economy" BS

I haven't bothered to listen to anything he had to say today