Replies to post #141385 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Partnerships - OGXI is a good example (about 12 months of cash and good randomized data). But it is especially interesting given that the stock dropped precipitously when the deal was announced. (In contrast, for instance, MDVN got about the same type of deal and yet did not drop - but OTOH they got that deal with a drug with no randomized results).

[acgood]

What type of deal would be viewed as positive for SNTA? The shares are trading with an EV of about 170 M for a wholly owned program. Would a 50-75 M upfront and 15%+ royalty

If we are talking about a deal after release of legitimately good docetaxel+ganetespib phase 2b results (not just data mined subset), the deal you quote would be horrendous in my opinion and the company would not take it and would at least raise some more cash to get through the ALK data. My sense is they would be seeking upwards of $50m upfront for an Asian partnership. Clearly they haven't been offered that to date since they keep delaying signing a deal.

My preference (as if that matters) as a stockholder in SNTA and in order to optimize the development of the drug would be a buyout in the fall. The docetaxel combo data in hand, and by that point SNTA could give interested parties data from the ongoing ALK open label trial to see if the 50% RR is holding up. If both docetaxel combo and ALK single agent are going well, I don't see any reason why someone wouldn't offer $500-750m for the company.