Replies to post #61285 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[wbmw]

Re: If the 2 quarter gap were to remain, AMD will have its parts available in early Q3 2006, which is almost a year from now. Are you saying that AMD is WAAAYYY behind that?

Yup. I was expecting them to demo 65nm chips during IDF, but while Intel stole the 65nm spotlight, AMD sat embarrassingly in the corner demoing dual core Turions in a feeble attempt to look good relative to Yonah.

I think it's only a matter of time before AMD announces that 65nm is "on schedule" for H2 2006 (previously, they said early 2006, followed by mid-2006), and this will follow sometime next year with claims that parts will be "shipping" by the end of 2006. Maybe they'll be able to ramp quickly in '07, though.

[Andy Grave]

Way behind what? On the last process node, AMD was roughly 2 quarters behind Intel (which represented narrowing of the gap).

Since and including the .25um generation, the last AMD part from a given generation has out performed the last corresponding Intel part. The advantage was very small at .25um and has increased each generation until at 90nm, it is quite large. I would ask......what choice does Intel have but to ramp the next generation faster? Where would they be competitively if they didn't? Well, history will tell you. They screwed up big time at the .25um to .18um transition by not having enough .18um capacity soon enough coupled with a much lower initial yields at .18um than required by the market conditions of the time. AMD gained share like no other time I recall. Intel decided not to let that happen again by building up large over capacity for processors. This allows them to introduce any future process generation at less (probably much less) than mature yields if the competitive situation warrants. Just a very expensive insurance policy which AMD didn't have. Of course, AMD would be at extreme risk if they fell behind competitively. But, their new fab and the added capacity will mitigate some of that risk.

Andy Grave