hat is something like that worth to ECYT. How do you evaluate something like that?
Well it's all predicated on how good the drug is. If the drug turns out to be ho-hum, then nobody is going to want to bother with an expensive test. If the drug turns out to be a really good one (of the level of say Herceptin), then a large chunk of all ovarian cancer patients currently alive will get screened - of the order of 100k patients in the US (out of current 175k prevalence) and I assume the same in Europe. (Incidence is more like 20k/yr in US). So best case it produces revenue of $100m between the US and Europe initially at a price point of $500 to the company. So not anywhere near blockbuster numbers even in a best-case scenario, but still decent money for a small company. Other indications besides ovarian could of course be potentially bigger.
Having control of EC20 isn't just dollar value to ECYT. If EC20 were to be partnered along with EC145, then MRK essentially would indirectly have some type of control over other non-partnered folate receptor candidates in ECYT's pipeline.
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