Replies to post #140058 on Biotech Values

[BTH]

ONT-10 is sure to be the talk of all mouse models and xenograft models.

The only reason ONTY should be a decent trade here is because of their PI3K drug. ONT-10 is a fairy tale as far as I am concerned - Stimuvax is a gamble. At least PI3K is a validated target and early results have been pretty good - good enough for them to hopefully extract $100 million upfront from a potential partner at some point. Wasn't it Gilead that paid nearly $600 million for a company that had one PI3K drug?

I am long, because I am gambling on STIMUVAX. I still think Bob Kirkman is an unbridled moron.

[iwfal]

ONTY -

I think you are similarly skeptical of Stimuvax's chances for P3 success, but do you think ONT-10 is a promising candidate? It sounds promising to me on the surface, but there is obviously no hard clinical data yet.

Given that ONT-10 is essentially a more potent version of Stimuvax I'd want to see some signs of success with Stimuvax before hazarding a guess about ONT-10. E.g. a p value with Stimuvax at less than 0.10 or p less than 0.20 with well behaved major subgroups (i.e. 90% of the major subgroups all on the right side of HR=1.0). FWIW.