Replies to post #139890 on Biotech Values

[bladerunner1717]

Ciotera, oc631, et. al,

Do current developments in the HCV space--namely, the results from ABT's combo regimen--make BLRX's in-licensing of the two HCV drugs any less ridiculous than everyone first assumed?


Bladerunner

[oc631]

That's what people said about Telaprevir and Boceprevir but it's already softening with less than a year after launch. Throwing around numbers like 170M infected patients and calling everyone under the sun "warehoused" creates a lot of excitement but does not translate into sustainable sales.

There was a lot of hype around Tela/Boceprevir when in fact they were only add-on drugs to existing toxic therapy. Many doctors and patients considering this treatment stopped short when PSI-7977 results were announced. Internationally governments that subsidize HCV treatment can save a tremendous amount of money in health care costs over the long-term. Does it matter if 170 million patients seems overblown?

Let's just say GILD isn't going to enjoy 3+ years of unrivaled market dominance that the first wave of PIs are getting. ABT and BMY combos will follow within a year.

This hasn't been determined yet. Safety could derail either program. BMY is working with a guanine nuke which has shown a spike in ALT levels at the 200mg. dose. ABT has noted tolerability issues mid-stage with a complex four drug combo.