Replies to post #139869 on Biotech Values

[ciotera]

HCV is unlike HIV..

not only because demographics are different but more importantly because economics are different - in the western world, hcv will soon be eradicated. It is a finite, arguably overinflated, opportunity chased by way too many companies. I'm not saying the excitement is not warranted, but I don't know how many of these companies realize that they really are placing a bet on the developing world being able to afford these drugs within the next 5-10 years, especially China.

[iwfal]

DAA HCV

The tolerability of the four drug combo is quite favorable compared to existing SOC.

I'd agree that they are better - but I am not sure I'd use the adejctive 'quite' favorable given that two of the three primary things I would personally dislike about SOC are: nausea and headache and both are in the SAE for the Abbott regimen at about the same rate. (Pyrexia is the third SOC SAE that I would want to avoid - and it is obviously absent in the Abbott protocol as are myalgia and arthralgia).

Thus I would suggest the primary benefit of the regimen is shorter duration - I would agree that 12 weeks of nausea are much preferable to 48 weeks.

BUT

Ritonavir has been used for much longer durations than 12-weeks in HIV therapy so this should offset concern of use in older populations IMO.

Don't agree with this. Sure you can go off statins for 12 weeks. But Beta-blockers,... ?

And the random occasional liver failure seems a little bit of a concern. Altogether I wouldn't expect the Abbott regimen to be a blockbuster in the sense of draining the reserve of patients that have so far put off treatment.