I think Adam's theory is a good one for new biotech investors to key in on, but there will be exceptions. Too many new biotech people don't understand the necessity of being a skeptic.
While I agree that AF's theory has some merit as a broader affirmation, I think AF is trying to taking too much credit for the underlying tenets of evaluating clinical data and a co's drug development program that should be part of any investor's DD. After looking more deeply at peri's clinical data, I didn't need AF's market cap rule to tell me that X-PECT's chance of succeeding wasn't going to be good (though I did think there would at least be an efficacious sub-group). Plus I never liked KERX's business model of being a drug holding co. In a sense X-PECT was a gimme for the AF rule.
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