you must be new at this (I've been playing pennies for 20+ years). No guarantees in life, and even less in penny land, butthat being said, your "reasonong" is very flawed. Thinks can and often turn around on a dime (for better or for worse) in pennyland- hell, last year I lost 10K on a scam penny play in the 5 minutes i stepped out of my office for a cigarette (unrelated, but quit smoking 3 months ago, LOL). peace and good luck friend- see you in 2013