One scenario that would reconcile QQQ max pain at 25 with your expectation of a drop to 1263 would be:
A relatively slow, churning drop over the next two weeks, hitting 1260ish by about the 13th, followed by an options-related bounce of 60-70 points to resistance at 1320-1330, peaking by about the 18th or 19th. That would put QQQ in the high 24s at the about the right time, a near "win" for max pain. Then we can have your drop to 1193-1227 into the first week of March. After which, we get your mid-March bounce coinciding with March expiration, which currently has its own relatively large (~215k) build-up of puts at QQQ 25. It's great to have such a clear map, now if the market will only follow it. (g)
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