Koizumi stands firm
This is long, if you have time this is some political drama unfolding.
-Am
Aug 13, 2005
By J Sean Curtin
As the dust created by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's dramatic dissolution of the Lower House gradually settles, the battle lines for Japan's September 11 general election are beginning to emerge. Koizumi is determined to reshape national politics by purging the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of his opponents to create a "New LDP", which will pursue postal privatization and a structural reform agenda.
Diehard LDP rebels have vowed to thwart his plans and are standing as independents against Koizumi-backed candidates, creating a potentially disastrous split in the LDP vote. Meanwhile, the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is hoping to cash in on LDP disarray, but is finding it hard to compete for media attention with the soap opera-style LDP bust-up. Even though opinion surveys give the fractious LDP a healthy lead, increasingly bitter LDP bloodletting is making the election outcome highly unpredictable.
While most members of the LDP appear deeply alarmed about their uncertain prospects, Koizumi is radiating confidence. He genuinely appears to be relishing the showdown with his long-time party rivals, who have labeled him a tyrant. With the LDP so severely split in the run-up to a crucial election, logic would normally dictate that the party must suffer a severe setback. However, Koizumi passionately believes the public will back him and his reformist forces at the polls.
The Koizumi master plan envisages the creation of a "New LDP" by surgically removing the anti-reform lawmakers from its ranks and replacing them with loyalists. If this can be achieved, and it's an extremely big if, it should ensure his reelection as prime minister. This will allow him another shot at implementing postal privatization, which Koizumi says is the focal issue of the election and which caused him to call the snap election in the first place after the Upper House rejected his postal reform bills.
Koizumi's main stumbling blocks are the precariously fractured state of the LDP and electoral arithmetic, which make accomplishing his objectives a long shot. Opinion surveys also indicate pension reform, economic restructuring, rising health care costs and tax hikes all concern the public more than the postal issue.
A lot will also depend on how well the opposition DPJ performs. Kunio Sakaki, a DPJ politician from Hokkaido, is confident his party will succeed: "As long as the DPJ fight an effective campaign and get our message over to the public, then we will form the next government."
Jeff Kinston, a professor at Temple University Japan and author of Japan's Quiet Transformation, is less optimistic: "I suspect that the DPJ may find a way to blow this great opportunity." He added, "I still think chances of the first non-LDP dominated coalition government since 1993 are reasonably good."
Koizumi's high-risk strategy
The main plank of Koizumi's strategy against his party critics is to run official LDP candidates against all the 37 Lower House lawmakers who last week voted against his postal privatization bills and to deny them vital local support. This policy is especially targeted at rebel ringleaders, whom Koizumi hopes to decapitate at the polls, sapping enthusiasm for future rebellions. Junior coalition partner New Komeito has also confirmed that it will not support any LDP candidate who opposed the postal reform bills, further isolating the rebels.
However, nearly half of the dissenters benefit from strong local support bases and about 18 appear to be well on course for reelection, even without party endorsement or Komeito assistance. Such a result would create a serious post-electoral headache for Koizumi. Kinston commented, "It is still uncertain whether Koizumi hit the self-destruct button or the reset switch."
Complicating matters are the six or seven single-seat constituencies where the rebel LDP lawmakers are vulnerable to an official pro-Koizumi candidate running against them. Here there is a real risk of splitting the LDP vote and handing victory to the DPJ.
While Koizumi seems completely conformable with this high-risk gamble, many in his more cautious party are deeply unhappy. If he does not decisively beat the LDP, the knives will be out for Koizumi.
One LDP lawmaker, who did not wish to be identified, told Asia Times Online, "With an election to fight, we obviously have no option to but to unite around Koizumi, but his style has become too dictatorial, and if he fails to deliver a solid victory, he is finished."
Kevin Cooney, a professor of political science who specializes in Japanese politics at Union University, observed, "Koizumi never was the choice of the senior party leaders for prime minister. However, he was the choice of the rank-and-file members of the LDP. Many senior leaders in the LDP would be happy to see him gone, but not at the cost of losing power."
Electoral arithmetic
When parliament was dissolved, on paper, the LDP had 249 lawmakers, excluding Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono. However, since Koizumi expelled 37 Lower House LDP members, the figure actually stands at 213. An additional 14 lawmakers abstained or were absent from the vote, which brings the number of nominally pro-Koizumi LDP lawmakers to just 199, plus the 34 lawmakers of coalition partner New Komeito. Outgoing opposition lawmakers held 192 seats.
In the highly unlikely event that the post-election result mirrors the current alignment, Koizumi would only be able to definitely muster 233 votes in the 480 seat chamber, not enough to ensure his re-nomination as premier. If the DPJ make advances as predicted, pro-Koizumi forces are likely to be still further diminished.
It is to overcome this hurdle that Koizumi is running officially backed LDP, pro-Koizumi candidates against the 37 rebels in an attempt to boost the number of his supporters. However, serious divisions between Koizumi-controlled LDP national headquarters and local chapters makes defeating rebels without handing victory to the DPJ extremely tough.
Nearly half of the 26 LDP prefectural chapters from where the 37 rebels come have declared they will support their local renegade lawmaker. Ten chapters, in Akita, Yamanashi, Gifu, Shizuoka, Okayama, Tokushima, Saga, Oita, Yamaguchi and Miyazaki prefectures, have indicated they intend to support 17 of the rebels as independents. This effectively sets the national and local components of the LDP against each other.
Only the Tokyo, Aichi, Fukuoka and Hokkaido chapters have agreed not to campaign for their dissident lawmakers as Koizumi demands.
The spotlight of recent national media attention has been on the contrasting decisions of the Tokyo and Gifu chapters, which graphically illustrate the LDP split. Gifu has said it will support LDP rebel Seiko Noda, a popular former posts and telecommunications minister, while Tokyo withdrew support for Eita Yashiro and Koki Kobayashi.
Rival LDP candidates risk oblivion
The new and unpredictable electoral dynamics in the formerly safe rebel LDP constituencies is amply illustrated in the Tokyo number 10 single-seat constituency of outspoken Koizumi-foe, Koki Kobayashi. The veteran LDP lawmaker is slated to face Environment Minister Yuriko Koike, who has gained the support of the local chapter. Thus, in effect there will be two LDP candidates who will square off against Muneaki Samejima of DPJ, making the contest an exciting three-horse race. Kobayashi in the last election only won the seat with a 4,562 majority over his DPJ rival, who garnered 77,417 votes. The DPJ now has a good chance of capturing the seat, especially if the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) does not field a candidate after last time taking 19,338 votes.
Koizumi is also desperate to unseat his arch-enemies Tamisuke Watanuki, a former Lower House speaker, and Shizuka Kamei, a former chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, both of whom led the Lower House rebellion against his postal reform plan.
Kyogon Hagiyama, a Lower House lawmaker elected in the proportional representation block, has been selected to challenge Watanuki in his Toyama number three district, which he held in 2003 by a massive 107,653 votes over his DPJ rival. With an extremely solid base and strong support groups, it will be an uphill struggle for Hagiyama to unseat Watanuki.
So far, no pro-Koizumi challenger has been found to stand against Kamei in his Hiroshima number six single-seat constituency, and his local LDP chapter has so far resisted Koizumi's demands to dump him. At the last election, Kamei enjoyed a 16,982 vote majority over his DPJ challenger, but the emergence of a pro-Koizumi LDP candidate could divide the LDP vote, greatly boosting DPJ hopes. Unlike Watanuki, Kamei's seat could be in danger, and the real beneficiary of any feud is likely to be the DPJ.
LDP rebels determined to oust Koizumi
LDP renegades originally toyed with the idea of forming a new party but soon abandoned the idea, preferring instead to stand as independents to facilitate post-election reconciliation with the LDP.
The majority of rebel lawmakers, 25 in total, are from single-seat constituencies. Most enjoy a good local support base and have valuable name-recognition, which they hope will win them reelection. Only about six or seven could lose their seats to DPJ challengers if an official LDP candidate siphons away votes.
Twelve LDP rebels were elected from the proportional list, and this group will find it extremely difficult to win reelection if they stand as independents, and it is these lawmakers who are most keen on forming a new party, which under the current system would boost their chances of retaining a proportional seat.
The current overall rebel strategy was summed up by Koki Kobayashi: "It would be quicker to take over the LDP than form a new party." In other words, the LDP dissidents hope to be reelected as independents, then rapidly re-join the LDP on masse to oust Koizumi and kill postal privatization. Koizumi understands their aim and thus has decided to risk the LDP's electoral fortunes to block them.
Another serious problem arising from LDP disunity is that any slight drop in votes may affect the outcome in a number of closely fought LDP-DPJ battles where there are no rebels. In the November 2003 election, there were several constituencies where the LDP margin of victory was extremely thin.
For example, in Hokkaido number six single-seat constituency, the LDP's Hiroshi Imazu snatched the seat from the DPJ's Hidenori Sakaki by just 614 votes. Even a slight upsurge in DPJ support should given the party the edge in such contests. Sakaki, who is retiring from politics this election, said, "As long as the DPJ runs a smart campaign, we are certain to retake this seat and others like it."
During the first week since dissolution, the media have largely concentrated on internal LDP feuding, making it difficult for the DPJ to get across its message. Even so, as the conflict within the LDP intensifies, the opposition is almost certain to benefit.
Even so, Cooney of Union University thinks the LDP may still come out on top: "If there is one thing that the LDP does well, it is that it knows how to win elections. I would never count them out until it is all over, and then maybe not even then."
If Koizumi defies the odds to somehow succeed, he will earn himself a much-deserved place in Japanese political history, and even if he loses he is unlikely to be forgotten because of the unprecedented political drama he created.
J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
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