Replies to post #138346 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

New all-time high for AGN today on the Xeomin injunction.

[DewDiligence]

From AGN CC—Xeomin injunction against Merz issued on 3/9/12 (#msg-72958753) continues until 1/9/13 unless a patient issues a sworn statement (!) that he has not been solicited by Merz and is voluntarily requesting Xeomin! The injunction pertains to both medical and cosmetic uses of Xeomin in the US market.

Given the onerous terms described above, it’s unlikely that there will be any US Xeomin sales until Jan 2013 other than from product already in the wholesale channel (see below). Thus, Botox’s US market share should increase during the remainder of 2012.

In 1Q12, when there was still Xeomin inventory in the channel, Xeomin gained a 7-8% procedure share of the US cosmetic market due to heavy sampling, lowering Botox’s procedure share of this market to 78%; for the reason mentioned above, Botox should return to a procedure share of 80-85% (with the remainder held by Dysport) during the reminder of 2012.

Worldwide for all indications, Botox had a 76% share of botulinum-toxin market 4Q11 (the most recent quarter for which data are available).

[DewDiligence]

AGN’s injunction against Merz’s Xeomin remains in effect until 1/9/13 for cosmetic indications and 11/1/12 for therapeutic indications:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/allergan-comments-order-regarding-permanent-000000418.html

During the injunction period, US patients can obtain Xeomin only by submitting an affidavit to the attending physician stating that they have not been solicited by Merz and are requesting Xeomin voluntarily! Not surprisingly, this requirement has caused US sales of Xeomin during the injunction period to be de minimis.