Senomyx $SNMX thoughts
I completely exited SNMX in late 2010 after starting to accumulate in late 2008 and early 2009. At that time I felt that the progress on their programs was lackluster while the increase n valuation was dramatic. I reentered and traded around a small position throughout 2011 (I like SNMX partly because at times it doesn't move in lockstep with the broader biotech industry...sometimes is the only stock I want to buy...or sell).
Lately, IMO, 2 things have suppressed SNMX share price:
1) Viral spreading of outrageous claims such as that SNMX is responsible for there being aborted fetal cells in your Pepsi, and similar stories, including the related bill introduced by an Oklahoma (?) legislator. The truth of course, is that SNMX uses HEK293 cells in their research, a cell line that was indeed derived from aborted embryonic tissue. While claims that Campbells and Solae terminated their SNMX deals over this issue are patently false, I can't rule out that this issue make forming new partnerships more difficult.
2) much more recently, wall street was apparently disappointed with the royalty revenue guidance delivered for 2012 of about 60% growth y/y to $5m. The actual numbers will depend greatly on the number and timing of commercial launches involving SNMX sweet enhancer ingredients throughout the year.
Each of these issues is valid, but the portfolio progress has been much better recently and yes, I find the valuation of $50m for this companies current and future products and technology to be far too low:
-enhancers of sucralose and sucrose that have regulatory approval and are in products on the shelf in north america and other locations as of 2011
-beverage-optimized sucrose enhancer that triggered milestones from both Pepsi and Firmenich in 4q2011 and should have GRAS status by year-end 2012. Enhancers of HFCS are a bit further behind in development.
-GRAS bitter blocker to improve taste of variety of ingredients, in product testing
-Cooling flavor alternative to menthol that should be GRAS in <1 yr
-6 GRAS savory ingredients (alternative to MSG), 4 already commercialized
-research programs to identify salt enhancer and novel natural high-potency sweeteners
-locked up IP around all of this screening plus individual compounds of course
-generally 16-18 years patent protection on market because of short time to regulatory approval vs drugs
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