Replies to post #416404 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[basserdan]

>>>tomorrow the hui could drop to about 200-201 then reverse and move all the way up to about 210-214 , quite a feat but possible, and yes it can on fed day.<<<
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I like your spirit, opnion.....

Sure..... anything's possible but I doubt if the COMEX crooks are going to let the PoG go very far on the upside.....

And can the HUI rally 5% in a day without being accompanied by gold? Hmmmmmmmm!

To do so would make Greenspan look as bad as most of us think he is...... except Lee, of course! <vbg>

Fwiw, my 'off the wall' <g> guess for tomorrow is a stronger dollar and weaker gold.

[basserdan]

*** Some Comments on Gold (CoTs)


Some Comments on Gold

By: Dan Norcini
August 9, 2005

Open interest increased another 9,600 contracts during Friday’s session with the bulk of that coming into the December contract. It should be noted that Friday was a down day as the upmove in the dollar triggered fresh selling in the gold pit.

Here is what should be most disconcerting to the gold community.

In the last three trading sessions of the past week, 38,745 new long positions were instituted. All of those new longs were met with new shorts. The result of this incredible influx of buying was that gold moved from 437.70 as of Tuesday’s close to 442.80 basis December as of Friday. In other words, it took nearly 39,000 new long positions to move the market a measly $5.00.

Thus far this year, open interest totals above the 310,000 level portend near term tops in the gold market. The top in March came in when OI reached the 335,000 level. The near term top in June came in near the 312,000 mark.

At the current rate of cartel price capping, gold will require the addition of another 62,000 new longs to bring the price to the resistance level near 450. That is currently nearly $9.00 above the current trading price as of today’s pit session. That would bring the open interest to the 340,000 level.

The peak in Open Interest occurred last year in November when we hit 370,000.

While there is no limit as to how high open interest can climb, we will need to be especially vigilant if gold pushes above the 310,000 region.

The point in all this is quite simple.

There is a determined seller or sellers who are resolved to hold the line here and keep gold under $450 in the December contract. From a technical standpoint, if that level is taken out, fresh buying will surface in an attempt to run it up to near the $460 level along with short covering on the basis of some of the funds and small specs.

Ever since I began writing on this topic more than 3 years ago, I have long maintained that the gold market trades in such a fashion that any experienced trader can recognize as “abnormal”. Simply put, this past week is further proof of that statement as is today’s sickly performance.

It should be noted that tracking open interest is not a science; it is more of a fine art since there are so many variables that enter the equation. Still it is not encouraging to see gold struggling here with a weaker dollar, a South African strike, crude oil soaring into the stratosphere and the stock indices acting sickly.

It is going to take some incredible financial firepower to take out the “DO NOT PASS GO” sign that the monetary officials have erected. I suspect that the pit harlots known as the floor locals are emboldened as they have a strong seller at their backs and probably believe they can sell with impunity. Gold needs help from some other extraneous event along with a continued robust physical market to cause them to turn tail and run.

-- Posted Tuesday, 9 August 2005

http://news.goldseek.com/DanNorcini/1123596001.php

[Ken2]

<< tomorrow the hui could drop to about 200-201 then reverse and move all the way up to about 210-214 , quite a feat but possible, and yes it can on fed day. >>

Wow, you were way off!

<< tomorrow the hui could drop to about 200-201 >>

No, it only touched 201. It didn't enter that range. OK, LOD was 200.98, but it only entered your range by 2 cents.

<< then reverse and move all the way up to about 210-214 >>

No again! It reversed, but it took an extra day to reach 209.39. And that isn't even in your 210-214 range! Off by 61 cents!

Not perfect! Not perfect at all! Hmmm ... but pretty dang close! Yeah ... not so bad at all. Hmmm ...

With tongue firmly in cheek, and POG sitting at 438, I await to see if POG can bust through 440 this week. Would be quite nice ...

Ken

[basserdan]

>>>tomorrow the hui could drop to about 200-201 then reverse and move all the way up to about 210-214 , quite a feat but possible, and yes it can on fed day.<<<
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Great read, opnion..... my hat is off to you.

Having said that, I believe this strength in the PM shares is tailor made for taking some chips off the table with the idea of repositioning them at lower levels.

Tomorrow's Trade Balance report could easily surpass $60 billion again and coupled with tomorrow afternoon's CoT report could very well mark the end of the rally for now.

Still LT crazy bullish after all these years> <vbg>

[choad]

HUI, Looks like that "touched" category is reserved for you opnion, timing wasn't perfecto but good enough for me, nice call! Gotta truck full of plants for the worlds richest fellar to deliver, gotta go.