COM should be reporting some Phase II top-line oxypurinol CHF results I believe this month. I dont really know what to expect for these trials. COM has done some proof of concept trials that are on their website and the question is how do the proof of concept trials relate to the Phase II results soon to be released.
Oxypurinol is COM's second product and I do not believe that should the Phase II results fail, that there should not be a significant impact on COM as most investors in COM are focussed on COM's main product RSD1235. If oxypurinol does proove successful, oxypurinol should begin to add some value to COM and I would expect a partership and Phase III trials in 06.
COM's major product is RSD1235, IV and oral. The IV RSD1235 is currently in Phase III trials and COM should be reporting ACT 3 results roughly about a month from now. COM has already reported successful ACT 1 results in which there was a 50 some % conversion rate. COM is also conducting ACT 2 trials to hopefully expand the label to CABG patients.
COM has a partnership with Fujisawa(Astellas) for the North American rights. COM had stated recently that they are in talks for ROW rights(may come after the ACT 3 results).
IV RSD1235 is believed to have a worldwide market of 300-500 million dollars with the majority in the U.S. The big kahuna for COM is oral RSD1235 which has blockbuster potential. Oral RSD1235 is not for conversion as IV but rather to prevent arrythimias from occuring. COM is expected to begin Phase II trials in the 4th qtr.
COM is also under some takeover speculation with the most obvious bidder being Astellas.
The easy money has been made for COM however COM still has some potential value drivers ahead in the near future.
From an article dated Feb21,05 in the Globe and Mail
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Cardiome shapes up as target
By LEONARD ZEHR
Monday, February 21, 2005
Takeover fever is expected to sweep up high-flying drug developer Cardiome Pharma Corp. and its new heart drug later this year in a deal likely to top $500-million (U.S.), industry sources say.
The most likely bidder is Astellas Pharma Inc., which will become the second-largest drug company in Japan on April 1 when Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical Co. and Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co. tie the knot in a $7.75-billion merger to create Astellas.
The new company has its eye on Cardiome's RSD1235 intravenous heart drug to treat patients with rapid, irregular heartbeats in hospital emergency rooms. Fujisawa in October, 2003, purchased only the North American rights to distribute the drug, and has been working with Vancouver-based Cardiome to complete its clinical testing.
But the trigger for a takeover is a pill formulation of the drug in early-stage development. Much of its clinical risk has been removed because of the strong safety data of the IV version. Cardiome previously estimated the pill could rack up sales of $2-billion a year.
"An acquisition seems logical, given that it would not only secure the rest-of-world marketing rights [of RSD1235 for Astellas] but it would also give the company access to the oral formulation," said Punk Ziegel & Co. analyst David Lickrish.
It would be "illogical for Fujisawa to market the IV formulation and not the oral if it is successfully commercialized." He figures the possibility of an acquisition increases after the two Japanese companies merge on April 1.
David Harper, a professor of physiology at University College of the Fraser Valley in British Columbia, and president of Pacific BioVentures Inc., agrees. "There isn't a single small- to medium-sized biotech company with a successful cardiovascular drug that hasn't been taken out because the market potential is so huge."
At a recent analysts' meeting in New York, representatives of the two Japanese companies indicated RSD1235 is an important drug in the merged company's strategic plans, said individuals familiar with the presentation. Moreover, it was the second pipeline product the companies discussed at the time.
The stock closed Friday at $8.06 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, giving the company a market value of about $355-million, an amount that matches forecasts for the annual sales potential of the IV version of RSD1235.
Sprott Securities Inc. analyst David Dean suggests a takeover premium exceeding 40 per cent would match other cardiovascular deals.
Besides strategic reasons to acquire Cardiome, he figures there are also financial benefits. Fujisawa is paying 75 per cent of the costs to finish development of the IV drug, still owes Cardiome $48-million under the 2003 deal, and would have to funnel future royalties to Cardiome, all of which would reduce its net cost to buy Cardiome.
© The Globe and Mail
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