If we end up getting $1 share (a total pay-out of $200m) from the trusts over the next couple of years, which I think is easily within the realm of possibility, and we get a newco share price of $2 or more in two years, then I would consider this a winning bet. Not a life-changer, but a winner. Considering that we are likely to get just about 20 newco shares for every P, $3 in value would make each P worth about $60, well over 2X my average purchase price. Of course, I am hoping for significantly more; all I am saying is that if I get $3 for/on each newco share, I would certainly not consider this a loser. If we get $5 for each newco share (in one way or another) by sometime in 2014, I will do cartwheels.
BTW, I think those large NOL's are going to give our newco a very significant competitive advantage in the reinsurance market. If managed well (and we will need a hot CEO and CFO for that) I would not be surprised to see this company's market share of the reinsurance market grow exponentially over the next few years. Maybe I have this wrong, but it looks to me as if the first $6 billion+ in profits would be essentially federal income tax free. In a competitive industry with not great margins, that would equate to a huge pricing advantage.
The growth potential of the newco is quite substantial. It just needs the right management.
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