Replies to post #75488 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[BioChica]

4 Events this year, that will move PPS: Bought in at .94 this is the last time! if these events do not pan out not wasting any more time on PPHM.

NSCLC - Drug: Paclitaxel / Carboplatin
Drug: bavituximab
Estimated Primary Completion Date: April 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

NSCLC - Drug: Docetaxel plus bavituximab or placebo
Estimated Primary Completion Date: April 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

Pancreatic Cancer
Estimated Primary Completion Date: June 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

Breast Cancer Drug: paclitaxel
Biological: bavituximab
Estimated Primary Completion Date: July 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)

[Thurly]

December 10Q:
With respect to the second-line NSCLC study evaluating bavituximab with docetaxel versus placebo with docetaxel, we will continue to treat the enrolled patients and plan to unblind data on the primary endpoint, ORR, in the first half of 2012.

We're four months from the data release. There are a number of scenarios IMO. The most likely (no guarantees here) is that the stock will run before the data release - I would expect a slow rise over two or three months, but you never know. They will partner Cotara before the data release (my guess, in the next month or six weeks). The partnership will make the run go parabolic as, the higher it goes, the more it will mitigate the risk of holding through the binary event. In a trial failure scenario, all the shares that were bought in recent high-volume push would still be in the money even if the trial fails. If the trial succeeds ... fuggedaboutit.

I'm not blessed with any super-human, future gazing powers. It's just my best WAG for what I see and entirely IMO.

[freethemice]

My guess is the end of March would be the earliest the ORR data would be released for the second-line NSCLC trial. Hopefully the
median PFS data would be released by the end of May, and the median overall survival data by the end of July. Just a guess.