I think that's the wrong way to go about it. Rather I would take a NPV approach - look at projected after -tax revenue for each year in the next decade under two different scenarios - one with another entrant and one without. I think others here are better qualified to come up with those projected revenue numbers than I am.
I personally would use a 10% discount rate (which is unusually low as these things go) because I believe the revenue is pretty secure and there are unlikely to be negative surprises. I would weight the two resulting numbers based on one's perceived likelihood of another entrant happening. (Or you could consider them a likely best case and a likely worst case).
(With a 10% discount rate and going out a decade I don't think the terminal value is going to be that material).
When valuing MNTA of course, you also have to add the estimated NPV of them winning their patent case (hard calculation) and their pipeline.
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