Replies to post #13813 on Tactical Air Defense Services, Inc.(fka TADF)

[TwoBrass]

$TADF Awesome Sugar! Which sticky do you want replaced? TwoBrass

[Cardinal Grammeter]

SugarCoat: Awesome estimates. What if TACair gets the contract(s)? What is TADF's share?

Tom

[TheRagman]

Good homework!

[balamidas]

great post SugarCoat !!! that exactly what is needed to make people understand the HUGE potential here

thank you

[w1ldflower]

$TADF
what's the latest info on the SNC contract re-award? does anyone know?

[SugarCoat]

AN EDUCATED GUESTIMATION OF PPS

This concerns the Super Tucano that is in TADF possession, the Sierra Nevada Corp partnership and the pilot training contract that is due for the beginning of the year.

The basic calculations can also be used for other contracts to get a general idea for PPS.




Pilot training contract examples

Raytheon wins $42 million contract to train Afghan Air Force pilots
http://www.raytheon.com/newsroom/technology/idex2011/pilot/
worth $42 million over 3 years

Quote:
DULLES, Va. and PARIS, June 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The first 16 Afghan Air Force (AAF) students recently completed English-immersion training on a contract led by Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) to provide fixed- and rotary-wing pilot training for up to 80 Afghan airmen.
The students are now attending aviation ground school, the second phase of the four-part pilot training program. The $42.8 million, three-year training contract supports NATO Air Training Command-Afghanistan under the U.S. Army's Warfighter Field Operations Customer Support (FOCUS) contract.



URS Awarded Army Flight Training Contract
http://investors.urscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=89381&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1136365&highlight=
worth $240 million over 5 years

Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 29, 2008--URS Corporation (NYSE: URS) today announced that the Company's EG&G Division has been selected once again by the U.S. Army to support the Rotary Wing Flight Training Services program at Fort Rucker, Alabama. Under the terms of this re-compete contract, URS will train all of the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force undergraduate rotary wing students. The five-year contract has a value of approximately $240 million to URS.


BAE Systems Wins Interim Basic Flying Training Contract
worth 86.6mil AUD = $89.2million USD
http://www.baesystems.com/Newsroom/NewsReleases/autoGen_1114593859.html

Lockheed Global Training fends off rivals, wins big C-130 training contract
worth $270 million
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2011-02-15/business/os-lockheed-big-sim-deal-20110215_1_training-contract-military-pilots-high-tech-training-division


Working backwards to see how much the training portion of the Super Tucano contract could be.

The entire Embraer contract is worth $355 million for 20 planes with the possibility that it could grow to $950 million for 55 planes.

link to one on many sources for this info
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/super-tucano-wins-usaf-order-but-hawker-beechcraft-launches-challenge-366450/
and
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_includes/articlePrint.jsp?headLine=U.S.%20Wants%20COIN%20Aircraft%20For%20Foreign%20Training&storyID=news/dti/2011/04/01/DT_04_01_2011_p38-297236.xml


Each plane is said to cost $10.63 million.

source of price info here
http://www.aircraftcompare.com/helicopter-airplane/Embraer-EMB-314-Super-Tucano/110


20 planes x $10.63 million each = $212,600,000
55 planes x $10.63 million each = $584,650,000

For the $355 million contract
$355,000,000 - $212,600,000 = $142,000,000

For the $950 million contract
$950,000,000 - $584,650,000 = $583,700,000

that's $142 or $584 million for other stuff besides the planes.

The other stuff includes

Quote:
As specified by the Air Force, SNC is being awarded a firm-fixed price delivery order 0001 contract in the amount of $355,126,541 for the Light Air Support (LAS) aircraft and associated support. The delivery order is being issued under the simultaneously awarded basic contract FA8637-12-D-6001, an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract. The initial demand is for 20 LAS aircraft together with ground training devices to support pilot training and support for all maintenance and supply requirements for the aircraft and associated support equipment.


source
http://www.sncorp.com/press_more_info.php?id=472


How this translates to TADF


According to Yahoo finance, the Aerospace/Defense Products and Services industry has an average P/E of 14.5 and a Net Profit Margin % 6.8

... say TADF landed a $10 million contract. Using the above numbers.

.068 (Net Profit Margin) = earnings / 10,000,000 = $680,000 earnings

$680,000 / 6 000 000 000 shares = $0.000113333333/shares earnings

0.000113333333 x 14.5 = $0.0017 per share.

so, according to this, if TADF lands a $10 mil contract, share price should be around .0017.

$40 million = $.0068
$100 million = $.017

This is all based on industry averages. The actual share price may be higher, or lower depending on what the market decides.