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manappraisal

02/10/12 9:26 AM

#8324 RE: No-dough-go #8312

In summary, my point is that so far, there has been no determinable detriment to the share price as a result of the increase in A/S.


I understand your point. It is valid at present. However, my comment was made in a microcosm and related specifically to the events of 1 specific price drop.

I have found, in following many runs and all out pump efforts, that a rapid rise can be followed by a generally downward trend which is significant at first the trails off slowly. Obviously, there is no single trend that applies to all stocks, but I have seen this repeat enough times that it seems wihtin the odds.

For example, MILV (Mistral Ventures) had a very large push a few months back which drove the price to 14 cents. Immediatley after all the PR's stopped the death spiral began. This was at first dramatic. Then, as investors sought value, a recovery began and some price increases were observed. However, over time investors lost confidence and additional PR's did not show up. The promises in the PR's did not materialize and deadlines for product rollouts passed. This stock then went into a slow but steady decline with some small bumps here and there. Investors are now on the sidelines andthe SP has dropped to .008 +/-

No one knows for sure what the effects of the large AS will be. However, in a lack of PR or earnings there is a logical path which is supported by precedent. As OS begins to rise, investors can loose confidence and start to divest out of fear of the future. The large AS itself does not inspire confidence. It means that funding is only commming via security with new shares. If the company cannot deliver revenue, then the AS will convert in order to cover the notes.

Yes, to me this seems obvious and was behind the statement you quoted, although the future OS was not part of the direct statement. The statement implied that the large AS would likely result in divesting or dumping as soon as the the spell of the recent PR was over. I say "spell" becasue I have seen this over and over and over.

I am right? Only time will tell and it depends upon the company's actions. I do believe that the new AS is a monster and will require some legit company performance to overcome. Seen it all before. The price support you quote, while yes, does represent gains from previous lows, also represents about a 20-25% reduction from the paek the other day. Whether you view it as successful depends which angle you view it from.

Regards.