Replies to post #27228 on lowtrade

[lowtrade]

ICPA is not an attention getting pop. It's a possible bottom, where volume normally builds anyway. For the darkside play setup, you want a bottom in place before bought price and volume surge.

The price pull down is to get the price to where funders want in. Once reached, the deal needs to be completed, before any farther action in the stock price. It's rare funder & insider complete transaction and start the fleecing in a big bang, at the bottom.

Your though process is good, timing off IMO. You see alot of double bottoms for this reason. If things are in fast mode. But normally see bought pops a month after bottom. Especially if it's debit conversion. They usually are locked to the VWPA and need 14 to 30 days, before the value weighted price average reaches the same price as the bottom.

So with either form of funding, New or debit conversion, Time needs to pass, before one can expect the play to start.

That's why I posted play the emotion, if it happens. I don't expect it's real. real comes later.

[lowtrade]

Sorry I skipped over your real question.

How to find large amounts of shares shifiting into big guys hands.

This takes work. Many times it's right there in the PR cycle. New funding or debit conversion. But many times you need to read 2 or 3 SEC Q filings and focus on share structure differences seen on the O/S.

EX:
Q1 OS 350 mil
Q2 OS 480 mil
Q3 OS 888 mil

If you see increasing OS Q over Q, event just the last, and mostly the last. You have found large amounts of new stock that someone got, for some reason.

There are times when management wants retail to know of new increase of OS. That's when they PR hype company support with smoke & mirrows, to innuendo their way to belief in company future growth because of new VC funding. When the VCs are really feeding themselves, not supporting the company. With this, odds leaning to one of the 3 main OTC chart patterns to play. The temp job, run/retrace/channel, or run/retrace - pop patterns. Other times they want to hide that info. To sneak in a pump & dump.

I'd say if increase in OS is easy to find, managemnt probably is trying for continued funding and growth. But hidden increases would lean toward a P&D setup signal.

There can be alot more involved, but that gets very involved. You may find that type of info, in some of my darkside setup posts. Board search darkside or setup. It involves much more research with conversion rights, debit restructuring, and insider buy timing.

But all that is not needed to keep things basic, simple and clean. OS increases in SEC filings or PR of new funding or preferred conversion is good enough to spot a setup.

Oh yea, two more things to look for. Look for new public offerings by the company, some where in the last years SEC filings. If they are trying to sell, they probably are in the middle of negotiations or the trans action is complete, without announcement. Next; Lots of change in benifical ownership also indicate share shifting to insiders. These added up, can signal a smaller but still profitable, insider play coming sometime soon. Or insiders know some funding is in the talking stage and plans are in the works for a storyline change and PR cycle plan. They like to load up and play with the big guys, before anything happens. And they would know if new funding is possible before anyone.