Replies to post #68434 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Ace Hanlon]

Cligott and Richard Bernstein of Merril Lynch are the only two major Wall Street strategists who were reasonably accurate the past few years to my knowledge.

[mainehiker]

chainik...on cliggot
yes he is a rare breed. comes across honest and level headed...
ironically, rukeyser had him on in the fall of 01 i think in nov...he correctly called the spring 02 top and decline in general terms..glad to see he's still bearish <g>
MH
surprised louie let him on!!!

[mlsoft]

chainik...

No, but I certainly agree with him. I think Cliggot, Roach (Morgan Stanley), and Bernstein (Merrill) are the three best analysts on the street.

We are in recession, and it is going to get worse, not better. I see virtually no chance for an sustainable economic recovery in 2003 and 2004 is still in question, in my opinion. As for the market, a 4th straight down year appears to be unavoidable, with the likelihood of considerable damage being done. Like for the economy, I would not be willing to make a bet that 2004 will not be the 5th down year.

mlsoft

[JMKel]

This is another "double dip" forecast. It seems that there is a contigent that believes that the demand will falter in the economy and that earnings will therefore fall.

For this "double dip" to happen the consumer spending is going to have to fall and possibly capex spending will have to fail to materialize.

We have already had a YOY quarterly expansion in earnings across the board of about 11%. Some companies like Intel have seen their profits climb 144% YOY. Last year was pretty bad earnings wise. Christams sales grew YOY but not at their usual pace. Auto sales remain strong. Companies like GM and Intc have achieved new operating efficiency. Intel's revenue growth is due to marketshare gains.

The semiconductor industry association has forecast a 20% increase in revenues this year. They have also stated that a recovery is now underway. The book to bill ratio is now 1.28 which is pretty good. We will see if it is sustained.

There is some early evidence of an expansion in capex spending and consumer demand should remain strong for a while with all the refinancing going on and new home construction and sales.
That portion of the economy should be maintained throughout the coming year.

So the key issue is when will we see a increase in demand and capital equipment expenditures?