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clawmann

01/12/12 6:20 AM

#356945 RE: es1 #356921

es1; The only problem I have with your calculation is that you are valuing newco shares based on the current pps of WAMUQ. This is why, IMO, your market valuation of $362m seems high.

Don't get me wrong, I would very much like to see the newco with an initial market cap of $362, because if the newco shares are worth $1.63 that would mean that the pps of a wampq (which at this moment is proposed to be converted into 18.67 newco shares) should be somewhere around $30.

Why use the current pps of the WAMUQs to do your calculations? Why not use the wampq pps or the wamkq pps? If, e.g., in your methodology you use the current wampq pps ($17) instead of the wamuq pps, you will get a newco pps of $0.91, giving the newco an initial market cap of about $182 million.

In any case, I think using any current market pps of any WAMU security to figure the initial market cap of the newco is probably not a valid valuation methodology. I would start with the liquidation analyses that have been done (the one in the DS says $145m) and then take account of the fact that that is a liquidation valuation, not a valaution of an enterprsie that will operate as a going concern.