Replies to post #133942 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

KERX doing nicely today (up 5-6%). No news but there have been positive blogs about the new 1st quarter. Technical play? Chart looks bullish:

Charts don't mean squat in biotech IMHO. You can have an inverted triple-double serrated wedge pie reverse triangular formation (or some actual bullish technical indicator) and it won't mean squat if perifosine fails its Phase 3 trial.

[hirogen]

No news but there have been positive blogs about the new 1st quarter.

From what I've seen of the positive blogs, most are based on -
1) comparison to KERX mgmt's prior expectations of a 4Q11 release of results (which I have been unable to resolve the basis for said expectations)
2) survival functions that use a fixed survival time or a normal distribution with arbitrary std dev
3) assumption of what the control arm MST is (typically favorable for significant PCAP survival benefit)