Replies to post #133658 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

MNTA -

That’s surprisingly superficial analysis for a poster of your ilk, IMO. You fail to take into account that some of the FoB’s under development will have peak US sales that are very much larger than Lovenox and Copaxone.

For instance, Humira will likely have annual US sales of more than $5B during the next few years, which will make it bigger than Lovenox and Copaxone combined

You might want to rethink who is being superficial since your argument is, at best, bizarre (who cares if the market is 2x as large if you have 1/2 the royalty rate and 40% of the market share that you do in Copax/Lov) and it is you who have shown no calcs. I have seen nothing on this board to counter the view that the lower royalty rates implies an expectation of much greater competition than in Lovenox/Copaxone (e.g. I think 10isman reluctantly agrees as do others) - so even with a much bigger market they get less total revenues. Competition is a bitch - hitting both GM and market share.

For instance, using the same assumptions as my previous calc - but starting with $5B just for you - the total revenues to Momenta are $200-300M. Small compared to mnta revenues for Lovenox plus Copaxone despite being a bigger market in aggregate.

[DewDiligence]

Some Humira factoids:

• EvaluatePharma forecasts $9.7B* of worldwide Humira sales in 2016 (#msg-64677120).

• 58% of Humira’s current sales are ex-US.

• It is almost certain that Humira will soon become the world’s largest-selling drug, if it is not already.

*ABT thinks this number is too low, and I’m inclined to agree.