Replies to post #133625 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA/BAX—I am curious what those two initial FoBs are likely to be.

I’m pretty sure one of them is Orencia. For the other one, my best guess is Humira.

[DewDiligence]

I now see that MNTA disclosed that max royalty is "slightly more" than double the base rate so hopefully that gets us to about 20% max royalty if all criteria is met.

On FoB’s #3-#6, I fully expect MNTA to opt in for the 30% cost-and-profit share.

[DewDiligence]

(MNTA/BAX)—BMY’s Orencia logged $257M of sales in 4Q11, +10% QoQ and +25% YoY, which is impressive growth for a drug that has been on the market for several years. FDA approval of the subcutaneous formulation in Jul 2011 (#msg-65720598) is contributing to the growth rate.

All told, Orencia is doing pretty well for a drug that some analysts had dismissed as an also-ran. It’s the clear leader in RA among non-TNF-a biologics, easily outselling Rituxan and Actemra.