Replies to post #133610 on Biotech Values

[orangeone]

More impressed after digesting 8k. While $33M is peanuts for six products, we should ignore upfront altogeher, I would not want MNTA to focus on getting upfront cash anyway. MNTA gets an honest royalty which is in the range of a very good preclinical deal for an innovative product, save that here we are not only in preclinical but we are talking about generics where competition is the base case. So good. And, royalties increase to double, presumably if MNTA finds itself in the lovenox like situation where it can sue to keep others out. High single digit, optionally increased two-fold, is not bad when the time to market is less than the 10+ years which is the rule for innovator products.

[DewDiligence]

First thoughts on MNTA-BAX FoB partnership:

I’m fine with the financial terms—to the extent that they’ve been sketchily disclosed—but I don’t like BAX as the partner. BAX strikes me as firm that makes more than its share of mistakes for a medium-sized biotech and is habitually preoccupied with fighting regulatory fires such as manufacturing deficiencies and product recalls.

Maybe MNTA’s know-how will ensure BAX’s success in this endeavor, but I would have much preferred a partner such as PFE or SNY.

I’ll have more to say after the CC tomorrow.

[DewDiligence]

MNTA/BAX—An important clarification of the 8-K info from today’s CC: MNTA’s decision to opt in for profit sharing on compounds #3–#6 occurs at the time of the IND filing for compound #3.

[DewDiligence]

Biobucks Scorecard for MNTA-BAX Partnership

The information below comes from MNTA’s SEC filing
(#msg-70213256) and MNTA’s 12/23/11 CC.

 
                             Likelihood 
                     Amount  being paid 
  
 Up-front             $33M   Certain 
  
 Pre-submission 
 technical/devlpmnt 
 milestones           $91M   Almost certain for FoB’s 
                             #1/#2; unclear for #3-#6 
  
 BAX option exercse 
 on FoB’s #3-#6       $28M*  Depends on partnership 
                             progress with #1/#2 
 Regulatory- 
 approval 
 milestones          $300M   Many moving parts; full 
                             amount highly unlikely 
  
 =================   ===== 
 Total biobucks      $452M

*Excluding $20M ($5M x4) for extending the expiration of BAX’s options on these FoB’s.