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biomaven0

12/15/11 1:24 PM

#15215 RE: bellweather1 #15040

>pona competition

Bosutinib is pretty much a non-starter from what I know. It's going to be a dud if it ever gets approved.

Don't know much about DCC-2036. But the preliminary results from ASH didn't seem all that great, and it would have to go up against ponatinib in any trial and attempt to show non-inferiority - once pona is approved the days of the single-arm trial in CML are likely numbered. In the big scheme of things I don't think it's likely to have much, if any, impact.

The bigger long-term "threat" - although it would be a very good thing indeed for patients - is that someone figures out a way to combine a TKI (likely ponatinib) with something else and allows patients to go off therapy for extended periods. The good news in that scenario is that pona would likely be the drug of choice in the combination; the bad news (for Ariad, not the patients) is that they wouldn't have to take the drug chronically. In the short run this scenario would perhaps be very good for Aria; in the long run it would reduce the market size considerably.

Peter