Replies to post #132827 on Biotech Values

[Double_Bagel]

It looks like two of the catalysts listed have not materialized. Maybe it is too early to tell whether Horizant is a bust. Also, it looks like it will be approved in Japan next year.

I am thinking of just acquiring a few hundred shares at this point, write puts for a few hundred more. If it comes down some more, then I will write more puts, especially if the premium is still high.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269243-xenoport-favorable-risk-reward-ratio

Are you guys adding to XNPT under $4? How much of a loss is the failed Parkinson's drug trial?

You can sell the Mar 12 $4 puts for around 55 cents now, which is a 14% return for 3 1/2 months or you are put the stock at 3.45. I am thinking of doing this next week.

They have $2.91/share in cash. Although my guess is that they will burn that rather quickly if their sales for Horizant doesn't pick up soon.

Thanks.

[mcbio]

Are you guys adding to XNPT under $4? How much of a loss is the failed Parkinson's drug trial?

I would absolutely love to double down here but just don't have any available funds. I'm biased of course being long and well underwater but I think the selling is way overdone. Sure, the Parkinson's drug news was disappointing but I still think XP23829 is by far their most important asset. I put Horizant, and the potential for ramp up in sales, in at number 2. As long as '829 is still progressing forward, I will consider the stock undervalued at these levels. That drug alone has the potential to support a much higher market cap should it advance successfully to PoC. Should it run into trouble, I'll have to re-evaluate my thoughts.